The Vegas lines are generally incredibly accurate because even the slightest mistake can cost the sportsbooks millions of dollars from savvy bettors. Here are the updated numbers for the second weekend:
Not much to analyze here as the numbers really speak for themselves and there aren't really any surprises in the numbers like we saw in some of the earlier rounds. Kansas has about a 47% chance of advancing to their 6th Elite 8 in the past 8 seasons. All but one of the 2 vs 3 match-ups look like near toss-ups. The Tarheels and Cardinals should advance fairly easily into the next round, and UNC is still the clear favorite.
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Actually the Vegas lines are just based on what they think the public's perception of the line should be. They don't tell you a thing about a team's real chances to win, but only what the public thinks is the most likely team to win.
ReplyDeleteFor example, on Monday the odds for UNC to win the championship were 1 to 3. Do you really think they are that big of a favorite over the field to win? Of course not, but that is the direction the money pushed the line. They are currently 5-2 to win the championship.
So as you can see, Vegas isn't really trying to tell you what the true analysis should be on the teams. They are just trying to set a market and get equal money on both sides of the bet.
I think your predictions have been fundamentally flawed since you started incorporating Vegas lines. The Vegas lines change on a minute to minute basis.