Breaking down the bracket - Midwest

The selection show is over and the analysis has started. I've never been a big fan of Digger Phelps and his "eye" test, or Dickie V's loud ridiculous opinions. On the other hand, it's hard to find analysis that I consider to be any better. Hopefully I can fill that void a bit.

The following charts show an analysis of each team's chance of advancing to each round. The numbers are based purely on the rankings provided by Ken Pomeroy and a powerful little formula called log5 which converts those rankings into percents for a given match-up. Now, KenPom is not flawless, but he's extremely good at college basketball. Better than any analyst or other computer ranking. I hope to do some projections using other sources (including Vegas lines) later in the week.

Let's get down to it. Here's my chart for the Midwest bracket:


A couple of things stand out here. First, West Virginia shows up as the most likely to escape the Midwest after the 1 seed Louisville. WVU has been knocked around to the tune of 8 losses in the Big East (11 losses overall), but they've had a knack for hanging in there against teams like Louisville and Pitt and notched a win over UConn while dominating many of the other good Big East squads.

Looking at the first round, I don't believe Arizona should've been in, but they appear likely to cause trouble for the 5th-seeded Utah. Similarly, USC looks like a favorite against 7th-seeded BC in the opening round.

As a Kansas fan I think North Dakota St. is actually pretty tough for a 14, and 'm disappointed to see West Virginia as our 6 seed, but beyond that I can't really complain.

Overall, I have no real qualms with the way the numbers came out on this one. Let me know if you disagree though.