Bracket secret #1

March Madness Bracket Secret #1 - Be contrarian
In the previous post I established that you generally want to pick the best team in any given match-up. Now we can talk about the other side of that argument. There is an advantage to be gained by going against the grain with a pick.

Here's a super simplified example. Let's say 10 people are tied coming into the championship game. UNC is playing Memphis and is 60% to win. Which team do you hope you've picked in your bracket? The answer is it depends on the other 9 people. For example, let's say 7 of them picked UNC and 2 picked Memphis:

If you picked UNC
60% of the time they win, you are now in an 8 way tie and have a 1 in 8 shot of winning the tiebreaker (60% * 1/8 = 7.5% chance of winning)
40% of the time UNC loses, and you lose

But, if you picked Memphis
60% of the time they lose, and you lose
40% of the time they win, you are in a 3 way tie and have a 1 in 3 shot (40% * 1/3 = 13.3%)

As you can see picking the less likely result has actually nearly doubled your chances of winning. Of course, your real bracket situation is not nearly this simple, but the same principles apply. Try to identify underrated teams to select, especially in the Final 4 and beyond. I'm not talking about trying to pick the next George Mason, the odds just don't justify it, but considering looking for an unpopular 2 or 3 seed (or even a 1 seed) with a good shot.

This year UNC is a huge favorite, but they're also an extremely popular pick. A team like UConn on the other hand has a really difficult path (thanks mostly to Memphis), but still has a great shot. If you're in a pool that is likely to lean a certain way (a pool full of Pitt fans, or UNC-haters, or whatever else) use that information to your advantage because it is a big advantage. Another great resource is the National Bracket on ESPN that shows the popular picks through out the NCAA basketball tournament.

That's all for now, I'd love to hear your feedback on this, and suggestions for teams that are flying under the radar this year that can help you differentiate from the field.