This is where it gets interesting. KenPom's formula loves Memphis. In some ways it's not hard to see why. Memphis hasn't lost in almost 3 full months. In that time they've won 25 straight by an average of over 19 pts/gm. On the other hand, Conference USA doesn't offer a whole lot of challenge.
On the whole, I think Memphis is overrated by these numbers, but underrated by almost everyone else. They haven't played many tough games, but they've been downright dominant. I absolutely think the Tigers are the favorite in this region.
Aside from Memphis over UConn, the only projected "upset" in this bracket is 5-seed Purdue over 4-seed Washington by a fairly narrow margin. BYU is a very tough 8 seed. They should move through the first round easily and then cause some serious headaches for top-seeded UConn.
Chime in if you think Memphis doesn't have a 45% chance of winning this region.
These charts show an analysis of each team's chance of advancing to each round. The numbers are based purely on the rankings provided by Ken Pomeroy and a powerful little formula called log5 which converts those rankings into percents for a given match-up.
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lol memphis is terrible. who have they played?? you say they will win this region but they are the worst of all the top teams.
ReplyDeleteUW will beat Purdue. The game is in Portland. The Rose Garden will be full of DAWG fans. Go Huskies. By the way, I love this blog already
ReplyDeleteLove the standard ACC idiots. Playing in tougher conferences doesn't make you more talented. Especially over-rated ones like the ACC where they don't play defense.
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