This is the last region. I will be doing more in-depth analysis of the brackets throughout the week, as well as updates as the tournament goes on, so take a second to bookmark this page or subscribe via RSS.
UNC is the obvious favorite out of the region, but KenPom's numbers have Gonzaga posing an extremely serious threat. Gonzaga and Memphis have a lot in common. Both have a resume full of blowouts against less-competitive teams. It seems undeniable that the system is overrating these teams to a degree, but I believe both are more dangerous than they're given credit for. The 'Zags boast 2 wins over Tennessee, as well as victories against Oklahoma St, Washington St, and an OT loss to UConn.
Essentially 5 different teams have at least a 10% chance to advance out of this region: UNC, Gonzaga, Syracuse, ASU, and (nearly) OU. I have the West region, with UConn and Memphis as the most likely to produce the eventual champion, but this region has by far the most depth.
Illinois is a great team for a 5 seed, but they're staring at potential match-ups with Gonzaga, then Syraucse, then UNC. You can pretty much write them off at this point. They'd need a near-miracle to escape this region.
The first round games all look very lopsided here. I suspect my bracket will be all chalk for round 1 in the South. That's all for now, but check back soon for more breakdowns. Hope you enjoyed it.
These charts show an analysis of each team's chance of advancing to each round. The numbers are based purely on the rankings provided by Ken Pomeroy and a powerful little formula called log5 which converts those rankings into percents for a given match-up.
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I understand your methodology, but I think any system that doesn't have UNC as the favorite is flawed. Perhaps you could do some analysis based on the lines set in Vegas? Those guys make some mistakes too, but overall Vegas doesn't lose.
ReplyDeleteOU is healthy now they're one of the top 5 teams in the country. Your numbers here are ridiculous.
ReplyDeleteGood work here.
ReplyDeleteVegas doesn't lose, but you'd also be picking all chalk. Of course if you follow these, you would be too. The best philosophy is work under the assumption that a certain amount of upsets will happen. These charts certainly could help you there in choosing what teams have the best shot at pulling an upset.
I think an interesting number to work with would be the consistency rating. It's one of kenpom's most underutilized tools.
If I were to guess on how it would apply to March, Cinderellas would be closer to the bottom of the consistency rankings with teams making deep runs near the top. I haven't done any sort of experimenting though .I would love for someone to explore the "anatomy of an upset" using kenpom's numbers.
How do you get it to spit out numbers for hypothetical games? I understand how to do the math for one team, but not for a hypothetical combination of both.
ReplyDelete(I mean, I can do it in excel, its just ridiculously difficult).
publicdisgrace, it is probably the "ridiculously difficult" solution that you're picturing.
ReplyDeleteIt calculates the probability of each possible match-up based on the previous rounds and then the chances for each team in each potential match-up.
So, yeah, for the Championship game it actually calculates 1,024 different possible games.